The international spotlight is once again on the issue of drug trafficking, as Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, recently declared during his visit to Quito that the efforts against drug cartels by the Mexican authorities were still insufficient. Meanwhile, Claudia Sheinbaum, the current Mexican president, has dismissed the critique as a mere political stunt for the upcoming US midterms. However, the truth is that the Mexican cartels still ravage Mexican territory to their heart’s content. Some sources point out that up to 175,000 people are members of the different cartels, and more than 350,000 people have been killed since the start of the war on drugs. Yet, the reality of this war can only be understood by narrowing down the main actors in the conflict, the actions of the Mexican authorities to remedy the situation, and how the state of chaos translates to the population.
Tackling the cartels and its consequences
Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) was the Mexican president who began the war against organised crime at the start of his tenure. The measures included the deployment of 45,000 military units around the country, a US-Mexican security partnership, and an elaborate reform of the judicial and police forces, which proved to be a counterproductive start since 15,000 people died to crime-related violence halfway through Calderón’s tenure. Additionally, the focus of the authorities on beheading the main cartels working in Mexico only fostered the creation of smaller and far more aggressive gangs. Lastly, one of the main officials against cartel activity during Calderón’s government, Genaro García Luna, was convicted of receiving bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel during his time as head of public security. This proves that the corruption and violence scheme developed by the cartels was far bigger than imagined at the time.
Calderón’s predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto’s (2012-2018) security focus on the kingpin strategy proved to fall short as well, further amplifying the scale of social instability with narcos. Again, they relied on the old strategy targeting high narco profiles. This latter measure also fostered the expansion of the newly founded Jalisco New Generation Cartel led by narcos like Erick Valencia Salazar and Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes – or “El Mencho” – which experienced massive expansion throughout the country thanks to other cartels being more targeted. This cartel is part of the remnants of the old Milenio Cartel and as subsidiaries of the Sinaloa Cartel, which aimed to regain control over their rivals in Milenio’s old territory, La Resistencia. With the overtaking of southern Pacific provinces like Michoacán from La Resistencia and, as well as the weakening of major cartels, like the Sinaloa cartel after the final arrest of “El Chapo” Guzmán in 2016, Jalisco New Generation became the new emerging power in the Mexican drug world.
Hugs do not fare well against bullets
While Mexico was seeing the cartel scene change, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024) – commonly known as AMLO – attempted to change the pace of policies to end the violence of cartels in Mexico. His “hugs, not bullets” approach consisted of shifting the focus of security towards socio-economic and structural problems, like corruption. This approach was coupled with the creation of a National Guard, replacing the federal police role, even if the budget for security was barely touched. Nevertheless, the reality of lowering the priority to eliminate the criminal organisations only allowed the violence to continue. During his tenure, between 2018 and 2024, 130,000 people were assassinated, and 116,000 people were missing.
One of the main events that showed the fragility of AMLO’s soft tactic towards cartels was the Battle of Culiacán in 2019, just after completing his first year in the presidency. This event occurred in October of 2019 when Ovidio Guzmán López – son of “El Chapo” Guzmán – was arrested by authorities in Culiacán. In response, Sinaloa forces took over the streets and forced the authorities to set Ovidio free, with AMLO stating that freeing him was necessary to “protect citizens”. Despite these intentions, in a matter of hours, 8 people were killed, 21 were wounded, several security forces were taken hostage, and 14 different attacks occurred in the city.
What is next?
AMLO’s failed strategy is now being questioned by Sheinbaum’s government. Not fully distancing herself from her predecessor, she is now shifting towards an intelligence-based approach to eliminating cartels, which can also be seen by some as reminiscent of the old security policies. And even if the number of homicides seems to have slowed down, the number of missing people keeps rising, and the future ahead seems to be far more uncertain than before.
Despite the success in 2026 of taking down the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, “El Mencho”, his death showed the strength of the cartel across Mexico. The leader’s death sparked massive contestation by his subordinates, causing hundreds of violent altercations resulting in several blockades and gunfire in half of Mexico’s states. However, the problem now resides in the power vacuum created in this cartel. The perfect example of the dangers of such internal conflict is again shown by the current infighting within the Sinaloa Cartel.
After the arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader “El Mayo” in 2024, supporters of “El Mayo” declared that Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán betrayed them, creating an open front between Mayitos and Chapitos. The consequences of this conflict have led to a considerable number of homicides, as well as increased unemployment and economic downturn in Sinaloa. It has reached the point where thousands of inhabitants have demonstrated in frustration for putting an end to the violence between the two factions.
Because of this state of turf wars, Mexico is not only trying to end the existence of these criminal organisations, but also to stop them from further splitting and multiplying. Considering the many failed attempts by authorities to put a halt to the violence, it is now more a matter of when the lead will finally run out to stop the disappearances and the bloodshed.
By Jaime de la Jara Hernanz
September 24, 2026
