Back in 2020, around the time of the presidential elections, political polarisation in the United States was a big topic within local scientific communities. Numerous articles and research reports were published, highlighting that the divide between left-leaning Democrats and right-leaning Republicans had reached an all-time high. A report by the Pew Research Center even described the United States as “exceptional in the nature of its political divide” after comparing it to other developed democracies, including Canada, France, and Australia. At the time, some speculated that this might mark “the apex of its pendulum swing” and that, from that point, the situation would begin to normalise. However, statistical data analysis conducted two years later revealed that the divisions continued to deepen.
Tensions between supporters of the two main US parties, Democrats and Republicans, led people to fear the potential harm the opposing party’s candidate might cause if elected president. Therefore, it is no surprise that, during and after the campaign, Americans on both sides of the political divide openly discussed their plans to potentially leave the country should the wrong person win the presidential election. These sentiments, however, have not only started surfacing as an expression of anxieties about the 2024 US elections.
Just in 2024, two right-leaning families—the American Heyers and the Canadian Feenstras—achieved cross-platform virality and widespread press coverage for “fleeing” to Russia to escape the moral decline of their “neoliberal” states. However, after one of them famously faced some serious consequences, that particular destination lost its popularity among conservative circles. At least, this was evident on TikTok, where conservative users mentioned countries like Germany, Italy, and many others.
A right-leaning individual might, or indeed should, take issue with these particular destination choices, given that some of the most divisive subjects include gun laws, abortion rights, and the immigration crisis. In Germany, gun laws are restrictive, abortion is legal up to 12 weeks of pregnancy, and the refugee inflow has just experienced its largest spike since 2015. Similarly, Italian gun control laws substantially limit purchasing capabilities compared to the US, and elective abortion is available to all women within the first 90 days of pregnancy. Furthermore, Italy’s sea border is at the forefront of the European migration crisis, making the constant influx of refugees and illegal migrants extremely difficult to manage. Therefore, a Republican moving to either of these two countries would mean accepting all the policies they fear the Democratic Party might impose, while also retaining the anxieties tied to the immigration crisis.
The discussion among Republican voters fizzled out with the eventual victory of Donald Trump, announced on 5 November 2024. Democratic voters, in turn, turned to Google to research their options for moving abroad. According to Edison Research exit polls, this situation mirrors the aftermath of Donald J. Trump’s previous 2016 election victory, but this time on a grander scale. Most interest was directed towards Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and the UK—fellow English-speaking countries—but the EU also garnered a significant amount of appearances in search queries.
Although the destinations in North America and Australia have their own unique issues and challenges for potential American emigrants, this article will focus specifically on the challenges of relocating to Europe and the implications of leaving the US altogether.
Firstly, since the great wave of immigration in the autumn of 2015, European sentiments towards migration have been shifting from openness to relative hostility. According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, citizens of 21 of 27 EU countries state that immigration is the most significant issue Europe is currently facing. These changes are reflected in the rise of right-wing populist parties and increasingly stricter requirements for entering the Schengen Area. One of the more popular destinations, the aforementioned UK, left the EU in 2020, with 88% of people stating that immigration issues were the main force driving that decision.
However, most of the hostility and policy reforms are directed at MENA, Muslim asylum-seekers, and illegal immigrants. Therefore American migrants likely wouldn’t have to worry about such issues, right? Well, the situation is a bit more complicated. Initially, many nations— such as Germans— had a very open attitude towards immigrants; however, social attitudes, even towards non-MENA immigrants, have changed significantly over the past 10 years. For example, Poles welcomed Ukrainian refugees with substantial support originally, but over time, their relationship has soured.
But why would one assume that the situation of Americans in Europe would have followed a similar pattern? Europeans have a massive bias against Americans to begin with, especially in the countries they are most interested in moving to—the UK and Germany. This negative sentiment towards America is called “anti-Americanism” in the scientific community.
There is another gap in the logic of this “great American immigration” for Democrats. What they are trying to escape is the politics of right-wing populism—a political ideology that, as already stated, is also on the rise in the European Union due to economic grievances, the immigration crisis, and issues with diversity in mainstream political discourse. These are the same factors that gained Donald Trump enough support to become President of the USA. Twice.
Regardless, we have yet to find out how many Americans will or have already relocated due to their dissatisfaction with the election results. For these numbers, we will probably have to wait at least a few more months, possibly more than a year, or perhaps such data will never be published due to its low relevance—that is, the numbers may be so small they won’t be considered significant information.
For now, America seems to be the only developed democracy whose citizens are so divided that they would rather leave than accept the opposing candidate’s reign. As far-right parties gain popularity in many countries within the EU, is this something that European states should be worried about? If so, what can we do to prevent them from suffering the same fate?
By Zuzanna Tabakiernik
January 17, 2025
