This article is an opinion piece whose contents represent the standpoint of its author and not UPF Lund or The Perspective’s editorial board.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Napoleon’s timeless wisdom perfectly fits China’s stance in the Iran-US conflict.
On February 28th, the United States with the support of Israel launched a set of strikes against Iran. The attack killed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had led Iran’s theocracy since 1989. Unsurprisingly, the regime did not tolerate such an attack and in retaliation carried out strikes aimed at US and Israeli military bases in the region. Moreover, Iran announced a blockade of The Strait of Hormuz- one of the world’s most crucial oil chokepoints, resulting in disruption of shipping flows. Oil and gas markets reacted shortly after the start of the blockade. According to the UNCTAD report, oil prices spiked by 27% and gas prices by 74%. This may lead to higher food costs due to the rising cost of transportation, fertilizers and energy. Generally, this has led to a temporary energy crisis and clash of interests when it comes to the oil and gas trade.
While the media is focused on the confrontation between the US and Iran, it is worth shifting the attention to the biggest geopolitical rivalry: the US and China. Even though the US claims it is achieving all of its goals, China may be the unexpected winner of the conflict.
China is known for its non-interference policy. Instead of a direct approach, it relies on economic interdependence, technological integration and diplomatic positioning. Instead of aiming to replace US dominance in the Middle East, China seeks to build a system where economic leverage and networked influence complement each other to test the model’s scalability.
China has made significant progress in strengthening its economic ties with the Gulf States. As a part of the country’s wider Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to establish a transcontinental network of infrastructure, economic corridors connecting continents, and to expand the state’s global influence. China has planned a port modernization in the UAE as well as industrial zones along Egypt’s Suez Canal corridor. Additionally, as the world’s largest crude importer, China is investing heavily in regional refining, petrochemicals, and downstream industries to solidify its presence.
All these forms of cooperation build gradual leverage,contrasting with the US strategy of selective transactional bilateralism, which involves direct military intervention if it is needed to sustain “order” in the region. Meanwhile, China builds interdependent relationships where the Gulf States depend on Chinese trade, technology and infrastructure development.. The Iran-US conflict might aid China in this process. Some might argue that China faces serious economic issues due to its reliance on trade with Gulf States and oil supplies and Iran being its biggest ally. This is not exactly the case. While Iran is a substantial economic partner, China’s investment and trade with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is greater.
There are two likely scenarios of the Iran-US conflict. First, if China provides limited support, a defeat for Iran could undermine China’s credibility in the Global South, at least regarding regional security. However, this seems unlikely, as China continues to gain leverage against the US even without providing prominent support. The evidence that China is in a favorable position was visible during Xi and Trump’s meeting on 14-15th of May. Due to China’s leverage on Iran, it called to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a request from the US leadership. This way, China obtained an advantage in the negotiations with its biggest geopolitical rival. According to the analysis of Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a probable US withdrawal from the operation could create more space for China to expand its influence in the region.
In the second scenario, the US engages in the conflict more deeply. This could allow China to strengthen its alliance with Iran and, as a result, enter the market on a more profound level. This is reminiscent of the situation with Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China could offer its support through technology exports to elevate Iran’s defence capabilities. This could position China as a mediator of the conflict and a “peacemaker” among the Gulf States, similar to its role in brokering the 2023 Saudi-Iran deal, which countered US hegemony in the Middle East.
A final, and perhaps most crucial, aspect of the conflict benefiting China, is that a prolonged military intervention in Iran would redirect US military forces away from the Indo-Pacific region. That would mean potential consequences concerning the future of Taiwan or the South China Sea.
In conclusion, this conflict showcases how China could gain a strategic advantage without firing a shot. If the United States gets involved in any military conflict in the region, China could benefit. In the US-Iran case, potential consequences include Iran becoming increasingly dependent on China, the Gulf states balancing between two major powers and the distraction of the US from the Indo-Pacific region. This does not make pitfalls evaporate in an instant for China. It still suffers from instability in the Strait of Hormuz affecting its economic interests. Yet, these issues might also help China present itself as a mediator in the conflict. China already does it by requiring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and as a result, getting leverage in negotiations with the US. The deeper the US gets involved in the Middle East crisis, the more China will be able to challenge US hegemony in the region.
After all, Napoleon’s warning remains relevant: China might be patiently watching how its main rival makes a mistake, ready to turn it into powerful geopolitical leverage.
By Oleksandra Ursoi
May 28, 2026
