This article is an opinion piece whose contents represent the standpoint of its author and not UPF Lund or The Perspective’s editorial board.
When global trade hinges on a single narrow waterway, even a temporary ceasefire is dangerously insufficient. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the world’s energy supply, has once again become a geopolitical flashpoint, raising the pressing question of whether the European Union will step in to help secure it.
After a 40-day war that began on February 28, Donald Trump and Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The deal came the same day as the US President’s warning that “a whole civilization will die, never to be brought back again”. With Pakistan’s mediation, both sides entered negotiations aimed at establishing a longer-term peace plan and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Before the war, around 140 vessels passed through the strait daily. Since the fragile US-Iran truce, traffic now stands at 11% of pre-war levels. Despite expectations that the ceasefire would include the reopening of the route, the strait remains under the de facto control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran is pursuing a policy of selective access, warning that vessels without prior authorization could be “targeted and destroyed”. Reports of informal toll payments further complicate the situation, particularly as the IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization by the EU.
At the same time, Washington has leveraged talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz to pressure its NATO allies. Frustrated by the lack of military support from European countries, Trump has threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, raising concerns about the future of transatlantic security cooperation.
Uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire’s durability, coupled with Iran’s continued control over the chokepoint, has already cast a shadow over the global economy. Germany, France and the UK have signalled readiness to assist in reopening the waterway but only after hostilities fully cease. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated, “We are prepared to help after a peace agreement is reached”. However, any such operation would likely require a mandate from the United Nations Security Council, which remains difficult to secure.
Although international law guarantees freedom of navigation, the U.S. has floated the controversial idea of a “joint venture” with Tehran to introduce a pay-to-pass system in the strait. The European Commission has firmly rejected this proposal, arguing that imposing fees on vessels in international waters would be unlawful.
Additional tensions have emerged over differing interpretations of the ceasefire. Pakistani mediators suggested it extend to Lebanon, but Israel rejected this, intensifying its operations against Hezbollah. Tehran has warned that such actions risk undermining the truce entirely and could lead to a possibility of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has urged Israel to halt hostilities in Lebanon, warning that they are placing the ceasefire “under severe strain”.
A Fresh Crisis Within the Alliance
The Hormuz dilemma has exposed deeper fractures within the transatlantic alliance. Since returning to office, Trump has increasingly used tariffs and security guarantees as political leverage, challenging long-standing partnerships.
Tensions escalated in January when the U.S. administration floated the idea of annexing Greenland, a move that sparked diplomatic backlash. At the same time, Washington has pushed European allies to assume greater responsibility for regional security, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine.
Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. has called for a joint mission to secure the maritime route. Trump is also considering redeploying U.S. troops in Europe. However, these actions would face significant legal concerns. Under the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, troop levels cannot fall below 76,000 without clear justification tied to national interests.
Following weeks of criticism, European leaders have pushed back against Trump’s accusations. They emphasized their unwillingness to participate in an offensive for which they were not consulted on beforehand. As a defensive alliance, NATO is not obligated to support such initiatives.
Public opinion in Europe also reflects growing unease. A recent POLITICO European Pulse survey suggests that, under Trump, the U.S. is increasingly viewed not as an ally but as a potential threat. Washington even outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany. This shift in perception may significantly influence future decisions on military cooperation.
Europe now faces a strategic dilemma: how to contribute to maritime security in the Middle East without becoming overly dependent on external policy frameworks shaped in Washington. As the ceasefire remains fragile and the Strait of Hormuz only partially operational, the EU’s next steps are likely to play an important role in shaping both regional stability and its position within the transatlantic alliance.
By Yelyzaveta Maslovska
April 2021, 2026
